A Notice to Lessees, Operators, and Pipeline Right-Of-Way Holders (BSEE NTL 2012-N06), effective August 10, 2012, provides guidance on reviewing and updating Oil Spill Response Plans (OSRP).
This webpage provides most up-to-date conditional probability results of trajectory simulations, which are taken from Oil-Spill Risk Analysis: Contingency Planning Statistics for Gulf of Mexico OCS Activities.
Probability Tables
The links below provide direct links to the probability tables needed:
Probability Tables for Gulf of Mexico Launch Areas 70-145
Probability Tables for Gulf of Mexico Launch Areas 30-69
Probability Tables for Gulf of Mexico Launch Areas 1-29
How to Identify Onshore Areas
The onshore areas that must be identified are counties and parishes. All Gulf of Mexico coastal counties and parishes must be listed that can be potentially contacted (i.e., have a probability greater than 0.5% that they will be contacted) by an oil spill starting at the determined worst case discharge locations. The probability tables (see above) show the parishes/counties having a probability of contact.
How to Find the Launch Area Where a Particular Lease or Facility Is Located
If you do not know the launch area(s) where your lease or facility is located, use our Excel spreadsheet (OSRA Launch Areas by Block) with listings of Lease Block Areas, Blocks within each Lease Block Area, and the launch area for each block.
If the facility in your nearshore worst case response scenario is located in state offshore waters, choose launch area for the nearest block in the OCS.
How to Select Timeframes
Three timeframes (within 3, 10, or 30 days) are provided in the probability tables. The timeframe that you choose should best represent the likely time period that the hypothetical oil slick would persist on the surface of the water based on what you know about how quickly it will weather.
Climatological wind and ocean estimates are available for your use in oil weathering calculations.